Agora Group report for the fourth quarter of 2008
19-02-2009
Press release
| PLN million | 4 quarter 2008 | 4 quarter 2007 | yoy % change | 1-4 quarter 2008 | 1 - 4 quarter 2007 | yoy % change |
| Revenue | 335.9 | 352.4 | (4.7%) | 1 277.7 | 1 272.3 | 0.4% |
| Net profit | (30.6) | 26.5 | - | 23.3 | 100.2 | (76.7%) |
| Operating EBITDA | 28 | 62.8 | (55.4%) | 182.2 | 230.6 | (21%) |
| Net cash from operating activities | 42.1 | 42.9 | (1.9%) | 189.6 | 203.2 | (6.7%) |
Figures for 1-4q 2008 (yoy comparison)
• Revenues of the Group amounted to PLN 1,277.7 million (up 0.4%). Advertising sales reached PLN 916.1 million (up 8.1%), revenues from copy sales PLN 200.2 mln (down 5%), book sales brought PLN 63.2 million (down 50.3%).
• According to Agora's estimates, advertising spending for all media grew to PLN 8.1 billion (up 11%). Spending on TV reached ca. PLN 3.8 billion. Internet grew the fastest (up 31%), while spending on dailies grew by 0.5%.
• Gazeta's advertising sales reached PLN 485.8 million (down 0.6%) and its copy sales generated PLN 151.9 million (down 7.4%). Gazeta sold 411 thou. copies on average and its share in total newspaper advertising market reached ca. 41%. Free daily Metro increased its ad revenues to PLN 37.4 million (up 27.6%) and reached positive operating EBITDA of PLN 1 million. (1)
• Advertising revenues from the Group's Internet operations grew ahead of the market rate and reached PLN 47.9 million (up 74.2%) and ad sales of classified vortals amounted to PLN 18.6 million (up 26.5%). In November 2008 total reach of all Agora Internet brands reached 45.5%.
• AMS grew revenues to PLN 189.7 million (up 10.9%) and delivered 14.7% operating EBITDA margin.
• Revenues of magazines reached PLN 109.7 million (up 4.2%) and the segment's operating EBITDA reached PLN 19.2 million. (1)
• Radio stations grew revenues to PLN 87.5 million (up 19.2%) and posted positive operating EBITDA of PLN 8 million.
• Total net operating cost of the Group reached PLN 1,205.9 million (up 4.7%). Total net operating cost excluding one-off events amounted to PLN 1,191.4 million (up 3.4%). This was caused by staff cost increase due to salary regulations, development of Internet and AMS offers, as well as consolidation of the subsidiary Trader.com (Polska). Employment in the Group at the end of 2008 reached 3,673 FTEs (up 204 FTEs, including 112 staff of Trader). Staff costs (excluding non-cash cost of share-based payments) reached PLN 298.7 million (up 15.4%).
• Operating EBITDA of the Group stood at PLN 182.2 million (down 21%), while its operating EBITDA margin reached 14.3%. Group's net profit attributable to the equity holders of the parent entity amounted to PLN 23.4 million.
• At the end of December 2008, the Group had PLN 263.7 million in cash and cash equivalents. On the day of this press release the Group used PLN 139.5 million from available credit line.
• In 4q2008 the Company booked a number of one-off events which affected its cost base and decreased its operating profit by PLN 14.5 million. These included a provision for the execution of the operating efficiency improvement program announced in December 2008, in the amount of PLN 8.6 million, including PLN 4.9 million for the lay-offs. The Company estimates that successful implementing of the lay-off program may bring PLN 11 million of savings as compared to 2008. But due to the last year's salary regulations plan and planned growth projects (including Internet and outdoor), the Company expects that total staff cost (excluding non-cash cost of share-based payments) will remain roughly on 2008 level.
• In December 2008, the Company booked an impairment loss on its investment in Trader.com (Polska) in the amount of PLN 27.2 million. The impairment write-off increased the Group's finance cost and negatively affected its consolidated results in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Piotr Niemczycki President of the Management Board said:
"The financial results of the Group were, among others, affected by cost of development initiatives and the economic slowdown, which was clearly visible in our industry in the last quarter of 2008. In addition, the Group's net profit was depressed by cost of implementation of the operating efficiency improvement program announced at the end of the year, the execution of which is essential to prepare the Group for adverse market conditions. Along with improving the Group's cost discipline, we will continue to execute on our growth projects to ensure long-term rational profitability of the Group."
4q2008 market performance and financial results of Agora's major lines of business (yoy comparison)
NEWSPAPER MARKET / GAZETA WYBORCZA
Gazeta Wyborcza maintained its leadership position among quality newspapers. It sold 418 thou. copies on average (down 5.2%) and decreased copy sales revenues by 15,7%. Copy sales of Dziennik declined by 13% to 154 thou. copies, Rzeczpospolita sold 153 thou. copies (down 11%) and Fakt sold 479 thou. copies (down 7%). Super Express grew paid circulation by 0.7% to 200 thou. copies.
Polskapresse's local dailies published under a common title Polska recorded in total the following copy sales figures for "old titles": Polska Dziennik Bałtycki (50 thou.), Polska Dziennik Lodzki (45 thou.), Polska Dziennik Zachodni (82 thou.), Polska Gazeta Krakowska (30 thou.), Polska Głos Wielkopolski (52 thou.), Polska Gazeta Wrocławska (34 thou.), Polska Kurier Lubelski (9.8 thou.) and for "new titles" (published since 15 of October 2007): Polska Białystok (0.7 thou.), Polska Gazeta Opolska (1.6 thou.), Polska Kielce (0.8 thou.), Polska Koszalin (0.5 thou.), Polska Kujawy (1.1 thou.), Polska Lubuskie (1.2 thou.), Polska Mazowsze (2.5 thou.), Polska Metropolia Warszawska (15.9 thou.), Polska Olsztyn (0.6 thou.), Polska Rzeszów (1.1 thou.), Polska Szczecin (0.9 thou.). The total number of copies sold for the 11 "new titles" of Polskapresse constituted 9% of the total copy sales of all dailies published under common title Polska.
Most publishers decided to increase copy prices of their newspapers. Dziennik currently sells for PLN 2 on weekdays and for PLN 2.5 on Saturdays and Fridays. The titles published under Polska brand cost from PLN 1.4 to PLN 1.5 on weekdays, while Rzeczpospolita sells for PLN 3.4. Since January 1, 2009, Gazeta is available at PLN 1.8 every day.
The attempts to arrest paid circulation and readership decline through so-called "other paid forms of distribution" became market standard for Gazeta's competition. In practice, in 4q2008 ca 49.5% of Dziennik's paid circulation and 13.2% of Rzeczpospolita's was sold through barter arrangements or the like methods. 'Other paid forms of distribution' constituted 8.6% of Gazeta's total copy sales.
In 4q2008 Gazeta Wyborcza was the most read quality daily during the week. It reached almost 4.5 million readers (15% reach, CCS - weekly readership index), which is almost 1.5 times more that the number of readers of 18 local dailies under the nationwide title Polska and 3 times more that the number of the readers of Rzeczpospolita or Dziennik.
Gazeta's net advertising revenues amounted to PLN 115.6 million (2) (down 13.7%) while its share in display advertising in dailies reached ca. 38% (down 1.3 pp). The share of Fakt in total newspaper advertising spending reached 6.5% while that of Dziennik stood at 7.5%.
INTERNET
Internet ad revenues (3) of Agora grew by 36.9% to PLN 15.2 million, including PLN 2.8 million from Internet ad sales of Trader.com (Polska). Listing sales in classified vortals increased by 34% to PLN 4.7 million 4. In November the reach of Agora's Internet brands among Polish users reached 45.5%, while the number of users amounted to 7.19 million (up 16.7%). At the end of December, Agora's Internet offering consisted of 89 online brands and was expanded in 4q by 14 new services, i.a: educational services, previously part of
Grupa Pracuj, i.a.
Edulandia.pl and
Studies.pl and three new services in Ukraine: the recruitment
StartJob.com.ua vortal, the ChikiDriki.com.ua online gaming service and the gossip
Plitkar.com.ua service. Agora launched first Internet ad network for women Glossy Media and started cooperation with Dailymotion, an independent video hosting service.
METRO
Metro reported a positive operating EBITDA of PLN 0.5 million (up PLN 0.5 million)1.The title's total advertising revenues grew by 7.8%, while that of display ads increased by almost 4%. Agora's free daily increased its share in total newspaper display ad spend to nearly 3.5% and posted good readership results. With weekly readership reach of 7.6% Metro was the third most read newspaper in Poland (together with Super Express). Agora's free daily is targeted at young urban readers. Its readership profile is composed of more young people (up to 24 years of age) than that of most Polish dailies, while 60% of their audiences live in cities with population of over 200 thousand. Due to this attractive readership structure Metro appeals to more and more advertisers. According to our plan, in 2008 Metro posted a positive operating EBITDA of PLN 1 million (1).
COLLECTIONS
Sales of collections brought PLN 23.2 million. Agora ran 5 collections and 25 one-off projects. The Company sold 1 million books and books with DVDs and CDs, i.a. books from 16-volume book series Dzieła Stanisława Lema (Stanisław Lem's Masterpieces), books with CDs from 24-volume music collection of Queen, books with DVD with documentary Poste restante by Marcel Lozinski, booklets with music CDs: 2-CD album The Best of Smooth Jazz Cafe recommended by Marek Niedzwiecki or books, i.a. a handbook by prof. Witold Orlowski Swiat, który oszalał, czyli poradnik na ciekawe czasy (The World's gone mad - a guide for interesting times). The most prestigious project was the movie Swiadectwo (Testimony). The world premiere of Agora's co-production took place in Vatican and in December the movie was published on DVD with accompanying book. Agora together with STX Jamboree Agency co-organized the first ever concert in Poland of Woody Allen's Jazz Band.
OUTDOOR
AMS grew revenues by 15.3% (to PLN 55 million) while total spending on outdoor advertising decreased by 2% yoy. The company's ad sales grew by 13.3%. This high increase stems from effective sales of campaigns on additional Premium and Superpremium panels, which AMS continued to add to its portfolio during last few quarters. The increase of operating cost by 30.2% mainly reflects higher system maintenance cost related to expanded offer and the investment in a new advertising channel in the Warsaw metro system, CityINFOtv. Estimated share of AMS in out-of-home ad spend grew to 26.9% (up by 4.9pp) (excluding transit advertising and cost of cross-promotion of Agora's other media on AMS panels if such promotion was executed without prior reservation).
MAGAZINES (5)
EBITDA of magazines (1) reached PLN 0.6 million, while segment's revenues grew to PLN 25.9 million (down 7.2%). The decline of revenues from ad sales (by 6.4% to PLN 14.6) and copy sales (by 8.2% to PLN 11.2 million) reflects general economic slowdown. Paid circulation of magazines remained flat yoy. In Q42008 Agora's magazines occupied 6.9% share of total magazine advertising spending.
RADIO
Local radio stations reported PLN 2.3 million operating EBITDA and increased ad revenues to PLN 25.4 million (up 16.5%) while total spending for radio advertising decreased by 3% yoy. Agora's local radio stations audience share reached 7.26%. The audience share of TOK FM reached 4.41% in all cities where broadcasted and 7.25% in Warsaw. The station grew its sales revenues by over 6%. In 2008 TOK FM grew revenues by 34% yoy and improved its results significantly. The station was named The Station of the Year 2007 by weekly Media&Marketing Polska.
PROSPECTS
COSTS IN 2009
Due to market situation,decline in production volume and lower number of products (connected i.a. with dual - pricing offers and collections), the Company expects a decrease in its marketing expenditure by several percent. This reduction is by and large related to Print and Internet activities. It should be noted, however, that the level of marketing expense depends on the expansion of particular businesses, as well as the market activities and projects of their competitors.
In 2009, due to higher prices of newsprint and energy, the Company's production cost will increase by a mid-teens percentage. It should be noted that this estimate depends on EUR/PLN exchange rate and the production volume.
ADVERTISING MARKET IN 2009
Ad market performance in 2009 by and large depends on GDP forecasts for Poland, which are currently inconsistent. The Company prepared its preliminary estimates for 2009 ad market and its dynamics vs. 2008 based on 1.5% GDP growth rate and may be amended should GDP forecast change throughout the year.
According to Agora's estimates, total advertising spending in 2009 will decline by ca 2%. It is now extremely difficult to estimate particular media performance in 2009 as, due to volatile market conditions, these estimates may include a significant margin of error. The Company assumes that in 2009, online spending will increase by a mid-teen percentage, while TV will grow by several percent. Estimated ad spend for dailies is likely to decline by even a mid-teen percentage as compared to 2008. Advertising budgets for magazines, outdoor and radio may shrink by several percent.
The Company is constantly monitoring trends in the advertising market and their potential changes caused by macroeconomic slowdown. The above estimates are exposed to a high risk of correction should new macroeconomic figures become available.
THE GROUP'S MAIN OBJECTIVES IN 2009:
• Continue to implement operating efficiency improvement plan to successfully prepare the Group to worsening market conditions;
• Continue to develop existing business areas to minimize possible decline of Group's profitability due to economic slowdown;
• Continue to execute on strategic objectives; take advantage of current equity market conditions to win valuable assets if available.
Notes:
(1) operating EBITDA of "Metro”, Magazines and Internet is calculated based on costs directly attributable to the appropriate area of the business line of the Agora Group and excludes allocations of all Company's overheads (such as: cost of Agora's Management Board and cost of the supporting divisions, which are almost in full factored in the Newspapers and Internet line of business.
(2) includes display advertising, classifieds and inserts and part of revenues from dual-media offers (published in "Gazeta Wyborcza" and in the Internet classifieds vortals: GazetaPraca.pl, GazetaDom.pl and Komunikaty.pl) assigned to "Gazeta Wyborcza" (print).
(3) data includes results of LLC Agora Ukraine Sp. z o.o. and Trader.com (Polska) Sp. z o.o. (for 3-4q2008).
(4) including, among others, allocated revenues from the dual-media offer (i.e. published both in "Gazeta Wyborcza", as well as on GazetaPraca.pl, GazetaDom.pl and Komunikaty.pl verticals).
(5) as of 4q2008 results of Magazines segment include results of Agora Press Ltd.
Sources:
Advertising market: The estimates refer to advertising expenditures in five media (print, radio, TV, outdoor, internet). Agora updated the data regarding ad market and ad market growth in 2008 and previous years. Print and radio advertising market data referred to herein are based on Agora's estimates adjusted for average discount rate and are stated in current prices. In case of print the data do not include classifieds, inserts and obituaries. The estimates are based on rate card data obtained from the following sources: Expert Monitor monitoring, Agora SA monitoring. Presented TV and internet figures for 2008 and the previous years are based on Starlink media house estimates and do not include sponsorships and teleshopping ads. Internet ad spend estimates include display, search engines (Search Engine Marketing) and vertical advertising and have been adjusted for the previous reporting periods. Outdoor advertising figures are based on Izba Gospodarcza Reklamy Zewnętrznej (IGRZ) estimates.
Copy sales of dailies: The data on the number of copies sold of daily newspapers is derived from the National Circulation Audit Office (ZKDP). The term "copy sales" used in this Press release is consistent with the sales declarations of publishers to the National Circulation Audit Office.
Readership of dailies: Data on dailies readership are based on PBC General, research carried out by MillwardBrown SMG/KRC on a random, nationwide sample of Poles over 15 years of age. The following indices were used: CCS index (weekly readership index) - percentage of respondents reading at least one edition of the title within 7 days of the week and CPW index (average issue readership index). Size of the sample: nationwide PBC General for: October- December 2008 n = 12. 025.
Internet offer reach: Portal reach, real users, page views and time spent on the basis of Megapanel PBI/Gemius and cover internet users age 7 years and above, connecting to internets from the territory of Poland. Real users data of Agora's internet services are audited by Gemius SA.
Outdoor: Report on sales of outdoor companies prepared by Izba Gospodarcza Reklamy Zewnetrznej (IGRZ) which include: AMS SA., Cityboard Media, Clear Channel Poland, Stroeer Out of Home Media, News Outdoor Poland, Gigaboard Polska, Mini Media/Publiprox, Business Consulting, CAM Media and Defi Poland. The report is prepared on the basis of financial data provided by member companies of IGRZ.
Copy sales of magazines: Average paid circulation of monthlies is based on the Agora's own data. Rate card data on magazines obtained from Expert Monitor monitoring; commercial brand advertising, excluding specialized monthlies; accounted for 128 titles.
Radio audience: Audience market data referred herein are based on Radio Track surveys, carried out by MillwardBrown SMG/KRC (all places, all days and all quarters of an hour of listening). For local radio stations and TOK FM: in cities of broadcasting and in the age group of 15+, from October to December n=32.303.